MARKET REPORT
(Unburdened by what has been)
Amsterdam Bourse 17th Century
Day in Review:
Today:
(Kamalanomics):
DATA:
– NY Consumer Expectations:
– Bowman (over week-end) sees inflation declining further
– BoE’s Mann says UK wage growth is still a concern
COMPANIES:
– Eli Lilly Sells $5B Bonds
– Home Depot to report
GENERAL:
– Trump and Elon on X in 2 hours
– TSLA halts cheaper Cyber Truck orders
– Coffee soars 5%, Soybeans 4-year LOW
– Oil Surge on ME tensions (awaiting Hezbollah attack)
– Brazil Central Bank Director indicates rate hike
– Coffee +3.84%, Corn -3%, Cocoa -2.4%, Rice -2%
– Equities mixed, Treasuries up, Crude up, Dollar flat
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 103.14 UNCH (103.31 – 103.10) Off LOWS
– AUD up: 65.85 +0.2% (66.06 – 65.79) Off LOWS
– EUR down: 91.47 -0.14% (91.61 – 91.39) Off LOWS
– GBP UNCH: 127.69 UNCH (127.54 – 127.94) MID
– JPY up: 147.14 +0.35% (148.21 – 146.83) Off LOWS
GOLD up: $2510 +1.52% (2466 – 2511) HIGHS
DOW/ES/ND down/UNCH/up: 39438 -0.51%, 5369 UNCH, 18636 +0.11%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UNCH/UP: 59093 +0.3%, 2661 +3.91%
CRUDE SOARS: $79.65 +3.6% (77.05 – 80.08) Off HIGHS
Coming Up:
– Australian Wage Price Index
– UK Unemployment
– German ZEW
– US PPI
Speakers:
– Fed’s Bostic
Earnings:
– Porsche SE, Pandora, Flutter, Home Depot.
MAJORS:
DX:
– The Dollar was rangebound on Monday, with the dollar index trading near session lows of 103.09 heading into APAC trade.
The buck was little changed by the NY Fed SCE (Jul), which unveiled 1- and 5-year inflation expectations were unchanged, while the 3-year expectations waned by 0.6% to 2.3%. ING believes if there are no upside surprises in US inflation this week, that their bias would be that the current DXY rally stalls ahead of the 103.5 area before it dips again.
Other dollar drivers in the space were thin, with participants placing their focus on Tuesday for PPI, and Fed’s Bostic (2024 Voter, Hawk). CPI on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday will also be key.
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 103.14 UNCH (103.31 – 103.10) Off LOWS
EUR
Nothing of note.
EUR down: 91.47 -0.14% (91.61 – 91.39) Off LOWS
GBP:
– A busy week in the UK, with the Jobs & Wages data (Tue), CPI (Wed), and Retail Sales (Fri) lying ahead.
Rabobank believes if the UK data unveils strength within the economy, EUR/GBP, which trades just above its 200 SMA (0.8556), is likely to put the 100 SMA (0.8510) in view if it breaks below.
Also of note, BoE’s Mann (hawk) spoke to the FT, noting UK wage growth is still a concern for inflation and wage pressures could take years to dissipate. She is still concerned about upside risks to inflation, but she admitted she has moved down from a 10 to a seven on the scale of “hawkishness” since the start of the year as price pressures eased
GBP UNCH: 127.69 UNCH (127.54 – 127.94) MID
AUD:
RBA’s Deputy Governor Hauser spoke on Monday, assuming inflation stickiness is due to weaker supply and labour market tightness and assumed unemployment will rise only slowly; AUD/USD pared most of the losses endured on Friday, rising to roughly 0.6590.
AUD up: 65.85 +0.2% (66.06 – 65.79) Off LOWS
YEN:
Jap PPI coming up!
JPY up: 147.14 +0.35% (148.21 – 146.83) Off LOWS
GOLD/SILVER:
GOLD up: $2510 +1.52% (2466 – 2511) HIGHS
EQUITIES:
Small Caps and The Dow were the day’s laggards with Nasdaq and the S&P basically unchanged:
EUR:
– DAX -0.06% 17,711
– FTSE +0.52% 8,210
– CAC -0.26% 7,251
– ES50 -0.10% 4,671
US:
– SPX flat 5,344
– NDX +0.16% 18,542
– DJIA -0.36% 39,357
– RUT -0.91% 2,062
Sectors (W to S): Real Estate -0.6%, Communication Services -0.6%, Industrials -0.5%, Consumer Staples -0.5%, Financials -0.5%, Materials -0.4%, Consumer Discretionary -0.4%, Health -0.4%, Utilities +0.2%, Energy +0.5%, Technology +0.9%
STOCKS
– Apple (+0.71%) – Foxconn has added 50k workers at its Zhengzhou plant over the past two weeks as it prepares for the iPhone 16 launch.
– Disney (-0.3%) – Unveiled plans of four new cruise ships and six new themed lands.
– Tesla (-1.25%) – Halted orders for the USD 61,000 base model of its Cybertruck, Fox News reports.
– Eli Lilly (-0.82) – Upgraded at Deutsche on high growth outlook and low beta.
– JetBlue Airways (-20.66%) – Announced plans to offer USD 400mln of convertible senior notes due in 2029.
– Warner Bros. Discovery (4.48%) – Olympics audience climbed 23% over Tokyo and streaming subscribers topped Tokyo by 77%.
– Starbucks (+2.58%) – Activist investor, Starboard Value, has acquired a stake in the Co., WSJ reported.
OIL:
– Anybody whos dated knows…….. REJECTION
CRUDE SOARS: $79.65 +3.6% (77.05 – 80.08) Off HIGHS
BONDS:
– Treasury yields were all lower on the day by around 4bps (30Y underperformed)
The 2Y yield fell to 4.00% and found some support on the day:
US 1-MO 5.363 -0.01
US 6-MO 4.984 -0.004
US 1-YR 4.492 +0.003
US 5-YR 3.749 -0.049
US 10-YR 3.907 -0.035
US 30-YR 4.202 -0.023
2YR/10YR -0.11:
CRYPTO
– Sell! Wait! BUY!, BUY! WAIT!!! SELL SELL!
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UNCH/UP: 59093 +0.3%, 2661 +3.91%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Post of the day:
Song of the day:
Joke of the Day:
(Seize all assets of Duke and Duke enterprises)
I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm
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