MARKET REPORT
Wiener Bourse
Review:
– Dollar Index hits 8-week high
– US Building Permits revised higher but still at lowest since June 2020 1.399m May, revised from 1.386m
– US New Home Sales hits 6-month LOW -11% @ 619k May, Exp 640k Prev 698K
– Medium New House $417,400 (Avg $520k) vs 1yr earlier $421k (496k)
Rate cut Expectations fell
– Amazon surges to hit $2T (+4%)
– Rivian SOARS +23% on back of VW $5B investment
– Moderna sinks 10% on back of RSV data efficacy wanes
– June, Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway spent another $435 million on Occidental Petroleum to make it Berkshire’s sixth-largest position.
– Hot Australian CPI
– US regulators could approve spot Ether ETF by July 4th
– US oil inventories unexpectedly rise
– European Bourses close lower
– JAP Yen hits 37.5 YEAR low (1986)
– Japanese official Kanda concerned about JPY moves
– Natural Gas -4%, Corn -5.5%, Rice & Oats -4%, Platinum +3%
– DOLLAR UP, YEN TUMBLES THROUGH 160, GOLD DOWN, EQUITIES UNCH, CRYPTO/CRUDE DOWN SMALL
DOLLAR DX up: 105.75 +0.47% (105.30 – 105.77) HIGHS
– AUD UNCH: 66.51 UNCH (66.89 – 66.41) LOWS
– EUR up: 93.60 +0.3% (93.270 – 93.73) HIGHS
– GBP down: 1.2623 UNCH (126.90 – 126.16) LOWS
– JPY up: 160.79 +0.72% (159.74 – 160.83) HIGHS
GOLD down: $2309 -0.9% (2329 – 2305) LOWS
DOW/ES/ND UNCH: 39537 UNCH, 5540 UNCH, 20004 +0.17%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down: 60958 -1.73%, 3410 -0.1%
CRUDE down: $80.66 -0.23% (81.62 – 80.25) LOWS
Upcoming:
– JAP Retail Sales
– EZ Consumer Confidence (Final)
– US; IJC, Durable Goods, GDP, PCE Q1 (Final)
Speakers:
RBA: Hauser
ECB: Elderson
EARNINGS:
MAJORS:
DX:
The Dollar was firmer with the Index climbing above the 106 mark, nearing the double top of April and May around 106.50.
There was no direct US catalyst for the DXY to move higher, but more in response to the weakness of the dollar’s peers, specifically the Yen, and Euro.
US New Home Sales declined more than expected to 619k in May (prev. 634k, rev. 689k, exp. 640k), though, upward revisions helped offset some of the weakness.
Fedspeak: Bowman reiterated remarks, saying she expects inflation to decline with the policy rate held steady. DXY peaked at session highs of 106.13, though has trimmed gains slightly, yet remains in the upper segment of its trading range.
Greenback watchers turn towards Thursday for US Durable Goods M/M and Final GDP Q1 Growth rate.
DOLLAR DX up: 105.75 +0.47% (105.30 – 105.77) HIGHS
EUR:
The Euro dipped back below 1.07 to fresh weekly lows of 1.0666, in what’s been an indecisive week so far for the FX.
ECB commentary: many spoke, most notably ECB’s Rehn saying “he sees bets for two more rate cuts this year as reasonable”, with a market terminal rate view of 2.25%-2.5% and did attempt to nullify France’s uncertainty with his remarks, “sees no disorderly market moves in France”, albeit, over the session, OAT/BUND spreads have widened from about 69 to 72.
Markets look towards Thursday for Eurozone Economic Sentiment for June and ECB Elderson is to speak.
The first round of French elections on Sunday.
EUR up: 93.60 +0.3% (93.270 – 93.73) HIGHS
GBP
GBP down: 1.2623 UNCH (126.90 – 126.16) LOWS
AUD:
Aussie outperformed in the green, the only G10FX in the green. Attention in the space was fixed on the hotter-than-expected Australia Weighted CPI, 4% (exp. 3.8%, prev. 3.6%). AUD/USD initially sparked higher to the data to 0.6664 from 0.6645, before climbing higher to session highs of 0.6688.
AUD/USD has given away strength since due to the rising Dollar.
Money markets reacted hawkishly towards the data, with a circa: 36% chance for the RBA to hike the Cash Rate at the August meeting (prev. 12% before data).
CapEco noted the main driver of the data stemmed from a “jump in services inflation, from 4% to a seven-month high of 4.8%, with the agency expecting the RBA to take an upside surprise in its stride as a result of Q1 GDP growth falling short of the Banks forecast (weakest since early-1990’s). Going forward, CapEco sees a rate cut only in Q1 2025 against the expected Q4 24. Kiwi was the worst performer in the G10 currency space ahead of Thursday’s ANZ Business Confidence for June
AUD UNCH: 66.51 UNCH (66.89 – 66.41) LOWS
YEN:
Remarks from Japanese top currency diplomat Kanda, who said he is seriously concerned about the recent rapid weakness in the Yen and will take necessary action in excessive moves.
USD/JPY initially reacted to the downside, falling to lows of 160.015 from 160.305, although, losses were quickly erased, with the USD/JPY reaching multi-decade highs of 160.82.
Looking ahead to Thursday, participants await Japanese Retail Sales with participants on intervention watch. Some analysts have suggested that 165.00 is the new line in the sand.
JPY up: 160.79 +0.72% (159.74 – 160.83) HIGHS
GOLD/SILVER
GOLD down: $2309 -0.9% (2329 – 2305) LOWS
EQUITIES:
US:
– SPX +0.16% 5,478
– NDX +0.25% 19,751
– DJI +0.04% 39,128
– RUT -0.21% 2,018
EURO:
– DAX -0.08% 18,163.87
– FTSE -0.27% 8,225.33
– CAC -0.69% 7,609.15
– ES50 -0.46% 4,913.25
SECTORS (S to W): Consumer Discretionary +1.98%, Technology +0.37%, Communication Svs. +0.1%, Consumer Staples -0.04%, Materials -0.05%, Real Estate -0.13%, Industrials -0.24%, Health Care -0.36%, Utilities -0.38%, Financials -0.47%, Energy -0.86%
STOCKS:
Rivian (+23%) – Volkswagen (-2%) is to invest an initial USD 1bln in Rivian, which could rise to as much as USD 5bln.
– Whirlpool (+17%) – Robert Bosch is reportedly eyeing a bid for Whirlpool, according to Reuters sources.
– Apple (+2%) – Upgraded at Rosenblatt and lifted PT; said the shift by Apple’s privacy focus of Apple Intelligence “could resonate” and argued for market share lift potential for Apple in AI.
OIL:
WTI (Q4) SETTLED USD 0.07 HIGHER AT 80.90/BBL; BRENT (U4) SETTLED USD 0.25 HIGHER AT 84.47/BBL
The crude complex was very choppy on Wednesday, albeit settling within ranges, in thin energy-specific newsflow. Recapping the day, WTI and Brent initially hit session highs in the European morning of USD 81.63/bbl and 85.03/bbl, respectively, before reversing and hitting lows of 80.18/bbl and 83.72/bbl after the weekly EIA data. On the metrics, crude and gasoline saw surprise builds, in fitting with but greater than the private inventory data, while distillates saw an expected draw. Refining utilisation slightly declined, while crude production was unchanged. Elsewhere, geopolitical updates were minimal with participants awaiting the next risk events in the form of Micron earnings (Wed AMC) and core PCE data (Fri). Note, an explosion/fire at the Dangote refinery caught traders attention, but an executive swiftly came out and said they contained a minor fire incident and the refinery is reportedly operating normally. Oil report courtesy of newsquark.
CRUDE down: $80.66 -0.23% (81.62 – 80.25) LOWS
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.33 +0.006
US 6-MO 5.345 -0.005
US 1-YR 5.142 +0.029
US 5-YR 4.336 +0.073
US 10-YR 4.32 +0.082
US 30-YR 4.45 0.078
2YR/10YR -0.42
CRYPTO
Bitcoin faded back from $62,000 as headlines around US Govt moving its Mt.Gox holdings to Coinbase sparked some selling pressure (though it appears the market has already soaked in the potential supply from that, which built on yesterday’s FUD-inspiring German govt move headlines)
– Either ETF is one step away from approval
– US gov’t sends 3940 BTC to Coinbase Exchange
– US spot BTC ETF score $31m in net inflows after outflow streak
– $60k KEY support.
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down: 60958 -1.73%, 3410 -0.1%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
Joke of the Day:
I play golf. I’m not good at golf, I never got good. I never got a hole-in-one. But I did hit a guy. And that’s way more satisfying. You’re supposed to yell “Fore!” but I was too busying mumbling “There ain’t no way that’s gonna hit him.”
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