Market Report 4/1/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:

– US Manufacturing PMI revised lower
– US Construction Spending unexpectedly shrank Act -0.3% Exp +0.7%
– US Factory Activity Expands Act 50.3 Exp 48.4
– Pound Hits 6-week low, Treasury yield 3 month high

– Strong China PMI

– Iran vows response to Israel strike on IRGC commander

– Nippon Steel makes pledge to union in push for US Steel

DOLLAR DX UP: 104.71                  +0.42% (104.22 – 104.80) Off Highs
– AUD DOWN: 64.89                       -0.50% (65.25 – 64.82) Off lows
– EUR UP: 93.06                               +0.50 (92.64 – 93.16) Off Highs
– GBP DOWN: 125.51                     -0.57% (126.32 – 125.40) Off Lows
– JPY up: 151.65                               +0.22% (151.28 – 151.75) Off Highs

GOLD UP: $2270                              +1.44% (2286 – 2250) Mid Rge
DOW/ES/ND down to mixed:       39752 -1.05%, 5292 -0.3%, 18500 +0.1%
CRYPTO down: BTC/ETH:               -1160/-1.6% 69740, 140/-3.85% 3495
CRUDE UP: $83.93                          +0.95%/+$0.79 (82.64 – 84.46) Off Highs

Upcoming:

RBA MINUTES!

RBA Kent speaking

DE: Inflation

US: JOLT Jobs, Factory Orders,

Speakers:

RBA Kent

US Bowman, Williams, Mester, Daly

Earnings:

MAJORS:

DX:  
Bid on Friday with the rally accelerating in wake of the stronger-than-expected Manufacturing PMI data which also saw an acceleration of prices. Reminder, on Good Friday (bank holiday but FX markets were open), the Core PCE data was in line with expectations while headline M/M was slightly softer. Fed Chair Powell also spoke on Friday, noting the PCE data was along the lines of what the Fed wants to see, noting “you won’t see us overreacting” – a similar message to his March FOMC press conference. In wake of the ISM and Construction Spending Data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate rose to 2.8% from the 2.3% seen after PCE. DXY briefly rose above 105 at the peaks but failed to hold on to the level for too long.

DOLLAR DX UP: 104.71                  +0.42% (104.22 – 104.80) Off Highs

No call

AUD:
Antipodes failed to sustain strength after the bounce in the China data.

AUD DOWN: 64.89                         -0.50% (65.25 – 64.82) Off lows

No call

GBP
Relative underperformer in response to the Dollar strength with weakness in equity markets also weighing on a reignition of hawkish Fed expectations after the Manufacturing PMI print.

GBP DOWN: 125.51                        -0.57% (126.32 – 125.40) Off Lows

No call

EUR
Softer on account of the rising greenback while European markets were shut for Easter Monday. EUR/USD fell from peaks of 1.0798 to lows of 1.0732. There was little of note out of the Eurozone given the bank holiday. However, following the soft French and Italian inflation figures on Friday, it will be interesting to see if the German figures follow suit on Tuesday with rates markets reopening from the long weekend.

EUR UP: 93.06                                  +0.50 (92.64 – 93.16) Off Highs

No call

YEN:
Slight weakness vs the buck with USD/JPY trading between 151.23 and 151.77, hovering just above 151.50 heading into APAC trade. Note the Japanese Tankan surveys for both manufacturing and services came in above expectations.

JPY up: 151.65                                 +0.22% (151.28 – 151.75) Off Highs

No call

GOLD & SILVER:

Getting toppy.
Anything 2250+ is due a retrace to test the 2200 figure. I’d favour shorting up here.

GOLD UP: $2270                              +1.44% (2286 – 2250) Mid Rge

Sell 2270+

EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.20% 5,244
– NDX +0.21% 18,293
– DJI -0.60% 39,567
– RUT -1.02% at 2,103.

EUR INDEXES:
CLOSED

SECTORS (S to W): Communication Services +1.45%, Energy +0.79%, Technology +0.23%, Materials -0.25%, Consumer Discretionary -0.61%, Financials -0.63%, Utilities -0.64%, Consumer Staples -0.77%, Industrials -0.79%, Health -0.88%, Real Estate -1.77%.

STOCKS
Meta Platforms +1.2%: Cannot delay the FTC from reopening a probe into alleged privacy failures at Facebook while it pursues a lawsuit challenging the agency’s authority.
US Steel  +2.5%: Nippon Steel (5401 JT) reportedly makes formal pledge to union in push for US Steel.

OIL
:
WTI (K4) SETTLES USD 0.54 HIGHER AT 83.71/BBL; BRENT (M4) SETTLES USD 0.42 HIGHER AT 87.42/BBL

Oil prices continued their breakout to the upside on Monday with hot US and China survey data providing tailwinds. WTI (K4) and Brent (M4) futures hit peaks of USD 84.49/bbl and 87.98/bbl during the US session after the strong ISM manufacturing data. During APAC trade, prices were supported from the Chinese manufacturing PMI rising into expansionary territory for the first time in six months. Meanwhile, and reflective of the bullish momentum in energy right now, Reuters source reports suggest Saudi Arabia may raise its OSPs for May. Geopolitical risk remains rife too after reports that Senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander Reza Zahedi was killed in an Israeli strike in Damascus, with Iranian officials warning of a response. Oil report courtesy of newssquarwk.

CRUDE UP: $83.93                          +0.95%/+$0.79 (82.64 – 84.46) Off Highs

BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO D/UNA
US 6-MO D/UNA
US 1-YR D/UNA
US 5-YR D/UNA
US 10-YR D/UNA 046
US 30-YR D/UNA

2YR/10YR D/UNA

CRYPTO
– Dogecoin hits 2yr high, comes off
– Tether becomes 7th highest holder of BTC

CRYPTO down: BTC/ETH:               -1160/-1.6% 69740, 140/-3.85% 3495

KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

We do our best to provide correct information and pricing. We do not accept liability on for error. All pricing listed has been taken care and checked but no liability assumed in error.

As ALWAYS, any advice given is general in nature and is not suited to each traders individual: situation/time-frame/goals/financial circumstance/risk profile/loss mechanics etc
We offer ideas for trades from time to time, we accept no liability for results, they are to be traded on your discretion and responsibility.

I can be contacted should anyone have any questions, input at [email protected] during US hours of EST 9am until 5pm

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