Market Report 2/12/2024

MARKET REPORT

Review:
– Egypt threatening to void Israel peace agreement with the latter threatening to invade Rafah (likely a hollow threat as Egypt receives billions in US aid which would be jeopardized. Egypt fears a mass ‘Palestinian’ migrant crisis)
– Indonesian, Finnish and South African Elections up for grabs
– US stocks hit record highs (before coming off)
– BTC hits 50k (1st time since Dec 21). Have you been reading my recommends?
– Goldman warns of Tech stock bubble
– NY Fed’s 3yr consumer inflation expectations ease
– Dovish ECB’s Panetta

DOLLAR DX: Flat:
– AUD UNCH: 65.30                        UNCH (65.15 – 65.43) close mid, off-highs
– EUR UNCH: 92.79                         UNCH (92.53 – 92.94) close mid, off-highs
– GBP UNCH: 126.30                       UNCH (126.10 – 126.55) close mid
– JPY UNCH: 149.31                         UNCH (148.92 – 149.43) close off highs

GOLD UNCH:                                   $2034 UNCH ($2042 – $2026) close mid
DOW/ES/ND:                                    38858 +0.3%, 5033 UNCH, 17925 -0.6% DW up, ES flat, NS down small
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP:                    +2200/+5% 50250, +150/+6% 22650 close absolute highs
CRUDE UNCH:                                  $77 UNCH ($75.60 – $77.08) close absolute highs

Upcoming:

US  CPI! ALL EYES!
AU NAB Business conditions
NZ Inflation
UK Employment
GE Zew
OPEC MOMR

AU Employment (Thurs morn!)
JAP GDP (Thurs morn!)

Speakers:

Earnings: Moody’s, Marriot

MAJORS:

DX:  
Nothing to report. Flat. US CPI Tues morn.
Ill say again, US CPI, Tues morn (US time). All eyes.

No call

10-

AUD:
“Choppy trading around the figure to continue.”
Wed Mkt Report.
We touched 65 the handle, again. I hope people have been trading to see the handle. 4 trading sessions we’ve seen the handle hit. That’s opportunity taken, or missed.

US CPI tom morn. No call

6-

EUR:
Over the weekend, ECB’s Panetta stated that the time for a policy reversal from the ECB’s policy stance is coming.
Nothing else of note.

US CPI tom morn. No call

9-

POUND:
UK CPI and GDP this week. Be aware.
News: Analysts at Rabobank: surveys are suggesting GDP could confirm a technical recession in the latter part of 2023. Highlighting the outperformance of the Pound in 2024 to date, noting “Consequently, weak UK GDP data suggests some potential for profit-taking in long GBP positions”. However, Rabo says they would favour buying GBP on dips vs the Euro and see EUR/GBP to move towards 0.84 in the latter part of 2024. UK employment data is due first on Tuesday.

US CPI tom morn. No call

1-

YEN:
Yuan was flat with China away for holiday.

US CPI tom morn. No call

1-

GOLD & SILVER:
Much of a nothing day across the board. Pre market little surge followed by an opening sell off (think bears have the reigns now) finished with an afternoon short squeeze. But much of a nothing. Silver outperforms again.

US CPI tom morn. No call

EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -0.1% 5,022
– NDX -0.44% 17,883
– DJI +0.32% 38,797
– RUT +1.75% 2,045

EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.65% 17,037.35
– FTSE 100: +0.01% 7,573.69
– CAC 40: +0.55% 7,689.80
– Euro Stoxx 50: +0.61% 4,744.45

SECTORS (S to W): Utilities +1.14%, Energy +1.05%, Materials +0.73%, Consumer Staples +0.63%, Financials +0.42%, Industrials +0.12%, Health +0.1%, Communication Services -0.18%, Consumer Discretionary -0.28%, Real Estate -0.37%, Technology -0.77%.

STOCKS:
New York Community Bancorp flat: Shares were choppy to start the week, as it initially continued its ascent higher after gains of 17% on Friday amid insider buying reports. In other news, Bank of America reiterated its neutral rating, while noting that leadership has “the playbook to turn things around.”
Tesla  2.5%: Temporarily lowered Model Y prices in the US following a similar move in Germany.
Rivian  -2%: Downgraded at Barclays; cited the slowdown in the EV market and Rivian’s implied profit risk among the reasons.
Lowe’s  +3.5%: Upgraded at JPM and added the shares to the firm’s adding Analyst Focus List as a value stock idea.


OIL:
WTI (H4) SETTLES USD 0.08 HIGHER AT 76.92/BBL; BRENT (J4) SETTLES USD 0.19 LOWER AT 82.00/BBL

Oil prices were choppy on Monday amid Middle East woes, a choppy Dollar, and Saudi jawboning. Futures gradually sold off through the European morning, despite a brief rally after Saudi Aramco’s CEO pushed back on peak oil demand calls and said he expects 104mln BPD and 105mln BPD of demand in 2024 and 2025, respectively. WTI (H4) and Brent (J4) futures troughed for the session in the NY morning at USD 75.54/bbl and 80.77/bbl, respectively. Contracts then pared losses as stateside trade got underway, spending some time in the black and peaking at USD 77.09/bbl and 82.19/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively, in lack of an obvious catalyst. Note some reports later on in the FT that the CIA and Mossad chiefs are to hold talks on Tuesday to revive the Hamas hostage deal, adding some optimism after the recent attacks of the Rafah crossing and Israel’s rejection of the current deal. Oil report courtesy of newsquark

BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.393 +0.003 US 6-MO 5.305 +0.021 US 1-YR 4.892 +0.019 US 5-YR 4.139 -0.012 US 10-YR 4.179 -0.008 US 30-YR 4.38 -0.001
2YR/10YR -0.29

CRYPTO:
“Further strength expected. Cant see a reason for a pause here.
“BTC back to outperforming ETH now. That’s the trade ID be looking at putting on at good levels.
Yest Mkt Report.
BTC up 4.5% and outperformed ETH +3%.
Hopefully someone made money on either or. Im quite annoyed at my wording on this. What I meant was to buy BTC and lean on ETH, youd well in the money on a spread I think will continue to outperform.
Continued upside with BTC to outperform.”

Fridays Mkt report. Hope it helped. I understand Crypto is terrifying, spreads, VOLATILITY.
BUT, we are in a CLEAR bull market and I would hope those WHO CAN AFFORD TO LOSE, are in the game. You have to be in it to win it. And risk is a part of life.

Where to now that BTC has hit 50k? My gut tells me a there’ll be a pile on and peeps jump in. Expecting a retracement? Maybe, but it’s the standard play. Id think another kick before a retrace. But understand, this is a MOMENTUM instrument. Go with it, DO NOT fight it. No picking tops or bottoms here. Listen and follow.

No call but look for an opp to buy. I LIKE these levels for a BTC/ETH play. ETH outperformed on a rare day, look for a opp to get long BTC and lean on ETH to put the spread on when the long falters.

Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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