MARKET REPORT
Review:
– ALL EYES ON JOBLESS TOMORROW
– Fed KashKari: Fed may not cut all all this year if no progress on inflation. Dollar surges, Gold/Equities sold.
– US Companies cut the most jobs in 14 months. Us based companies plan to cut 90k jobs in March
– US Trade gap Highest in 10 months
– US jobless 2 month high. +11k to 221 vs 214 Exp
– ECB see’s stronger case for rate cuts: Minutes
– UK stocks hit 14 month high
– CAD TSX all time high
– Crude settles above $86 on Israel closing foreign embassies (fears Iran response), BTC stronger, Dollar rebounds from early weakness on Kashari, close UNCH, Equities down on possible rate cut hiatus
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 103.98 UNCH (103.67 – 104.00) Highs
– AUD up: 65.83 +0.3% (65.75 – 66.19) Off Lows
– EUR UNCH: 92.26 UNCH (91.92 – 92.29) Highs
– GBP UNCH: 126.40 UNCH (126.82 – 126.38) Lows
– JPY down: 151.25 -0.26% (151.75 – 151.13) Lows
GOLD down: $2305 -0.45% (2323 – 2300) Lows
DOW/ES/ND DOWN: 38952 -1.35%, 5201 -1.24%, 18092 -1.55%
CRYPTO UP: BTC/ETH: 1990/+3% 67772, UNCH/UNCH 3302
CRUDE UP: $86.59 +1.51%/+$1.29 ($84.62 – 87.10) Off highs
Upcoming:
AU Bal of Trade, Imports/Exports, Retail Sales Final
EUR: Retail Sales
CAD Unemployment
US NON FARM PAYROLLS
Exp 200k Prev 275k
Rate Exp 3.9% Prev 3.9%
Avg Hrly Earn MoM Exp +0.3% Prev +0.3%
Avg Hrly Earn YoY Exp +4.1% Prev +4.3%
Speakers:
US Barkin, Bowman, Collins, Logan, Musalem
MAJORS:
DX:
Eventually flat on Thursday as it pared losses on rising geopolitical tensions amid uncertainty around Iran response to Israel. As such, there was a broad-based risk off sentiment in the last hour of trade highlighted by a bid in oil, followed by spot gold, while stocks sold off. Prior to this, continuing on Wednesday’s ISM-induced sell off, as it was hit on initial jobless claims rising to 221k (prev. 212k), above the expected 214k and outside the upper bound of the forecast range. Ahead of NFP on Friday, Challenger Layoffs rose for the third consecutive month to 90.3k, the highest level since January 2023. After the US data, Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow index was revised lower to 2.5% from 2.8%. On the Fed docket, it leant on the hawkish side – Goolsbee (2025 voter, dove) said in March he jotted down two rate cuts this year, while Barkin noted it is smart to take time on rate cuts. Kashkari (2025 voter) even said there may be no rate cuts if inflation progress stalls.
DOLLAR DX UNCH: 103.98 UNCH (103.67 – 104.00) Highs
No call before Payrolls
AUD:
Antipodeans are the G10 gainers. AUD outperforms its NZD counterpart, with the former buoyed by the surge in copper prices. Note, during APAC trade, Australian building approvals data were dismal as they fell 1.9% in February, vs. the prior, revised lower, -2.5% and the expected 3.3%. AUD/USD topped its 100 DMA at 0.6601 to reach a high of 0.6617 though heavily sold of on Kashkhari comments giving up most gains to settle around 65.80
AUD up: 65.83 +0.3% (65.75 – 66.19) Off Lows
No call pre Non Farm
GBP
Light March PMIs and the BoE Decision Maker Panel did little to sway action. Sold off to be unch on the day post Kashkhari.
GBP UNCH: 126.40 UNCH (126.82 – 126.38) Lows
No call pre Non Farm
EUR
EZ PMIs were revised higher while ECB Minutes added little new. UNCH on the day.
EUR UNCH: 92.26 UNCH (91.92 – 92.29) Highs
No call pre Non Farm
YEN:
JPY ended up seeing gains vs. the Greenback after it saw strength late in the session on the aforementioned heightening geopolitical tensions. Highlighting this, USD/JPY traded between 151.13-76 and currently sits at the bottom of the range. Nonetheless, late in the session BoJ Governor Ueda was on the wires via Asahi with a piece titled BoJ might mull rate hike from summer to autumn, but there was no reaction in the currency to the comments.
JPY down: 151.25 -0.26% (151.75 – 151.13) Lows
No call pre Non Farm
GOLD & SILVER:
An Afternoon rally in Gold was smacked in the face by Kashkhari indicating there may not only be a push back on the June cut back no possible cuts this year if progress isn’t seen on the inflation front. Gold dropped $25 before consolidating and closing above the $23 handle. Silver hit Res at 27.50 and dropped 2% on Fedspeak as well.
GOLD down: $2305 -0.45% (2323 – 2300) Lows
No call pre Non Farm
EQUITIES:
US INDEXES:
– SPX -1.23% 5,147
– NDX -1.55% 17,878
– DJIA -1.35% 38,596
– RUT -1.08% 2,053
EUR INDEXES:
– DAX: +0.16% 18,404
– FTSE: +0.48% 7,976
– CAC: -0.02% 8,152
– ES50: -0.02% 5,071
SECTORS (W to S): Technology -1.72%, Health -1.4%, Communication Services -1.39%, Financials -1.17%, Consumer Discretionary -1.16%, Materials -1.01%, Industrials -0.86%, Real Estate -0.77%, Consumer Staples -0.48%, Utilities -0.2%, Energy -0.06%.
STOCKS
– Levi’s +12.5%: EPS and revenue surpassed Wall St. expectations alongside raising FY EPS outlook.
– Paramount -8.5%: Ellison-led bid would require Paramount to raise new equity, according to CNBC citing sources.
– Alphabet -3%: Google mulls adding “premium” features to its search engine using generative AI and charging for the service, FT reports.
OIL:
WTI (K4) SETTLED USD 1.16 HIGHER AT 86.59/BBL; BRENT (M4) SETTLED USD 1.30 HIGHER AT 90.65/BBL
Oil prices were initially subdued on Thursday, with the strong rally losing some momentum in a catalyst-lite session until late Israel/Iran news led a bid into the settlement. WTI (K4) and Brent (M4) futures sold gradually to session lows of USD 84.64/bbl and 88.78/bbl in the US session, before ripping into settlement. That rip came amid some reports in Daily Express US that CIA has warned that Iran will attack Israel within 48 hours as revenge for the consulate strike, although it’s worth noting the reports were first floated on Wednesday but got some traction again on Thursday. We are looking for more clarity around the issue. Otherwise, it was a very quiet day from an energy newsflow perspective, with no other price catalysts. Oil report courtesy of newsquark
CRUDE UP: $86.59 +1.51%/+$1.29 ($84.62 – 87.10) Off highs
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.355 -0.009
US 6-MO 5.291 -0.022
US 1-YR 5.024 -0.023
US 5-YR 4.294 -0.044
US 10-YR 4.307 -0.048
US 30-YR 4.47 -0.039
2YR/10YR -0.34
CRYPTO
– Coinbase accelerates BTC trades with Lightning network (Lightspark)
– Commodities Futures Trading Commission data released shows record short futures positions by hedge Funds and CTA’s (Commodity Trading Advisors)
– New record high Funding rate indicates possible BTC pullback not over
CRYPTO UP: BTC/ETH: 1990/+3% 67772, UNCH/UNCH 3302
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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