– Powell says Rates Higher for Longer
– “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Powell said. “Given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it is appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide us,”

– Tesla down another 2.8%, lowest level in a YR
– Earnings: BoA -3.3%, Morgan Stanley +3.4%, Johnson & Johnson -2.4%
– United Airlines and IB release post close

– US 10yr Bond Yield hits 22week high

– Mixed data overnight out of China GDP beat, Retail sales & Industrial production miss

– Steel rebounds from 4yr low

– Indian Rupee plunges to record Low (as China’s weak yuan fix cast doubt over the extent of foreign exchange support from the Reserve Bank of India)

– CAD Inflations edges higher +2.9% Mar

– US Housing Starts 7-month Low -14.7% MoM 1.321m VS Exp 1.48mil, Largest decline since Apr 2020
– US Building Permits Drop to an 8-month Low
– US Industrial Production falls for 2nd month
– US Cap Utilization Below Forecast
– US Manf Out put rises 2nd straight month

– CAD 10yr Yield 5-month high, UK 10yr Bond 22-wk high, GER 4.5 month High, US hits 4.7%

– ECB Lagarde confirms rate cuts coming soon
– Euro Bourses hit 6-week Low

– Conflicting Israel reports on potential Iran response

DOLLAR DX up: 106.17                  +0.17% (105.87 – 106.30) Off Highs
– AUD Down: 64.06                         -0.6% (64.30 – 63.93) Lows
– EUR UNCH: 94.14                         UNCH (93.84 – 94.30) MID
– GBP down small: 124.30             -0.1% (124.72 – 124.07) Off Lows
– JPY up: 154.65                               +0.28% (154.23 – 154.77) Off Highs

GOLD UP: $2406                              +1 % ($2380 – $2414) Off Highs
DOW/ES/ND up/UNCH/up:          38128 +0.3%, 5205 UNCH, 17922 +0.46%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down:               600/-0.95% 62744, -50/-1.65% 3060
CRUDE UNCH: $85.37                    UNCH ($86.02 – $84.75) MID



US Beige Book
UK Inflation
EU Inflation and CPI FINAL


EU: Cipollone, Schnabel
BoE: Bailey, Haskel

Fed: Mester, Bowman


Eventually flat although the Index hit a YTD peak of 106.510 as Fed Chair Powell spoke and struck a hawkish tone noting recent data shows a lack of further progress on inflation this year and has not given greater confidence.
The Chair added if higher inflation persists Fed can maintain current rate as long as needed.

Prior to this, and although the Greenback was flat, the upside in yields was driven by a hawkish-leaning Jefferson who did not mention anything about easing later this year, while noting if inflation comes in above his expectations it will be appropriate to hold the policy rate at current levels for longer.
On data, building permits and housing starts came in beneath analyst expectations while industrial production was in line with forecasts but manufacturing output beat.

Rising for the fifth straight day to fresh highs since November – forming a ‘Golden Cross’ (50DMA crossing above the 200DMA)

DOLLAR DX up: 106.17                  +0.17% (105.87 – 106.30) Off Highs

No call

“Sell bounces go with flow look for test of 64 handle.”
Yest Market Report.
Exactly what we did today.

Aussie underperformed as it was weighed on by mixed Chinese activity data.

Employment Thurs all eyes

AUD Down: 64.06                           -0.6% (64.30 – 63.93) Lows

No call

Out of the UK, Earnings were hot but the employment metrics were soft. Meanwhile, incoming Deputy Governor Lombardelli said the decline in inflation is likely to be bumpy, and she sees two-sided risks – she refused to put a date on when she expects rate cuts.

GBP down small: 124.30               -0.1% (124.72 – 124.07) Off Lows

No call

For the single-currency, German ZEW saw a notable rise above expectations with a plethora of ECB speak hitting the wires

EUR UNCH: 94.14                            UNCH (93.84 – 94.30) MID

No call

Slightly weaker with the cross residing towards session high of 154.78, but that followed what appeared to be intervention earlier in the session. On this, USD/JPY hit a peak of 154.77, which then swiftly saw a sharp move lower in the cross without any notable headlines, with many suspecting intervention and will likely further cement expectations that 155.00 is the line in the sand for Japanese officials.

JPY up: 154.65                                 +0.28% (154.23 – 154.77) Off Highs

No call


Ended at a new record closing high:

GOLD UP: $2406                              +1 % ($2380 – $2414) Off Highs

No call

– SPX -0.21% 5,051
– NDX +0.04% 17,713
– DJIA +0.17% 37,798
– RUT -0.42% 1,967

– DAX: +0.12% 17,713.50
– FTSE: -1.82% 7,793.91
– CAC 40: -1.40% 7,899.36
– ES50: -1.41% 4,899.05

SECTORS (W to S): Real Estate -1.53%, Utilities -1.36%, Energy -0.87%, Materials -0.74%, Financials -0.62%, Consumer Discretionary -0.52%, Industrials -0.20%, Communication Services -0.12%, Health +0.02%, Consumer Staples +0.07%, Technology +0.23%

Amazon flat: Prime subs jump 8% in US to new high of 180mln, according to Consumer Intelligence Partners.


CRUDE UNCH: $85.37                    UNCH ($86.02 – $84.75) MID


US 1-MO 5.382 +0.001
US 6-MO 5.372 +0.006
US 1-YR 5.184 +0.007
US 5-YR 4.689 +0.044
US 10-YR 4.659 +0.031
US 30-YR 4.758 +0.018

2YR/10YR -0.32

– Halving scheduled for Sat
– 60k Key support if rally to continue

Price action pre-halving

– before the two previous halvings, in 2016 and 2020, there were major price retracements in the immediate run-up. In 2016, it was close to 40%, and in 2020, it was around 20%.

CRYPTO: BTC/ETH down:               600/-0.95% 62744, -50/-1.65% 3060

No Call


Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you

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