MARKET REPORT
Review:
– NVIDIA +7% REBOUND! NASDAQ up 1% (Google +2%), Tech UP, broader Index down
– Tesla up 2.5% on Cyber Truck figures
– Trump Media up 15% (welcome to the rollacoaster)
– Rivian +8% (turn the machines back on and sell, sell, sell)
– Chicago PMI up in May +0.18 vs -0.26
– US home Prices rise LESS than expected +0.2% vs Exp +0.3% (still broke records):
The 10-city composite, which encompasses Los Angeles, Miami and New York, rose 8% annually, compared with an increase of 8.3% in March. The 20-city composite, which also tracks housing prices in Dallas and Seattle, posted an annual gain of 7.2%, which also marks an increase from the 7.5% figure recorded the previous month
– Prices rose in about half of the 20 major metro markets tracked by the index.
– Bowman sees no rate cuts this year
– Cook echoes known Fed rhetoric
– Richmond Fed disappoints
– Euro Bourses close lower
– Silver down, again. Cotton/Wheat down -5+%, Oats up 5+%, OJ…. UP LEWIS!
– Crypto profit takes
– CAD bonds soar after high inflation number
– TREASURIES FLAT, BROAD US BOURSE DOWN, TECH UP, CRUDE DOWN (FOR NOW), DOLLAR UP SMALLS
DOLLAR DX up: 105.26 +0.16% (105.03 – 105.43) MID
– AUD down: 66.46 -0.16% (66.73 – 66.36) MID
– EUR up: 93.31 +0.18% (93.04 – 93.52) MID
– GBP UNCH: 1.2686 UNCH (127.02 – 126.71) MID
– JPY UNCH: 159.68 UNCH (159.30 – 159.75) HIGHS
GOLD down: $2331 -0.57% (2349 – 2327) Off LOWS
DOW/ES/ND down/up/up 39492 -0.88%, 5535 +0.35%, 19967 +1.1%
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: 61940 +4.5%, 3416 +3.9%
CRUDE down: $80.79 80.85 (81.76 – 80.62) LOWS
Upcoming:
AUSSIE CPI!!!
Speakers:
– ECB: Rehn, Panetta, Lane
EARNINGS:
MAJORS:
DX:
BACK to WED HIGHS!
The Dollar Index spent much of the European session hovering around the 105.50 mark, before lifting modestly higher through the US session to a peak of 105.78.
On the Fed footing, Bowman reiterated her known hawkish tendencies and does not see any rate cuts for 2024 and shifted cuts to 2025.
Cook said monetary policy is restrictive and current policy is ‘well positioned’ to respond to the economic outlook, and “at some point” it will be appropriate to cut rates.
US data for the day saw the Richmond Fed Comp Index fall to -10, below the prior 0, with the decline propelled by a further drop in new orders and shipments falling into contractionary territory for June. US Consumer Confidence fell from 102.0 to 100.4 in June, albeit above the expected 100.0.
Looking ahead, participants await the pivotal core PCE on Friday.
DOLLAR DX up: 105.26 +0.16% (105.03 – 105.43) MID
EUR:
On the French election footing, the RN party aimed to mitigate risks related to its party and the perceived risks with it; subsequently, the GE/FR spread has narrowed since mid-June.
EUR up: 93.31 +0.18% (93.04 – 93.52) MID
GBP
No news of note
GBP UNCH: 1.2686 UNCH (127.02 – 126.71) MID
AUD:
Slight underperformance in the Aussie despite Westpac Consumer Confidence rising 1.7% M/M in June, its highest figure since February; Aussie watchers turn towards the CPI for May
AUD down: 66.46 -0.16% (66.73 – 66.36) MID
YEN:
Yen flat following a lower-than-expected Services PPI for May 2.5% (exp. 3.0%, prev. 2.8%). Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki continued to hit the wires, noting it will continue to respond appropriately to excessive FX moves and that it’s desirable for FX to move stably. Franc modestly underperforms and sees slight losses against the Dollar.
JPY UNCH: 159.68 UNCH (159.30 – 159.75) HIGHS
GOLD/SILVER
The $30 psy mark is now EXTREME resistance and momentum is now clearly to the downside for Silver. Expect Gold to ‘FOLLOW’ excluding data.
GOLD down: $2331 -0.57% (2349 – 2327) Off LOWS
EQUITIES:
TECH is THE story of the day (Cough NVIDIA dragged EVERYTHING, up)
OIL:
WTI (Q4) SETTLED USD 0.80 LOWER AT 80.83/BBL; BRENT (Q4) SETTLED USD 1.00 LOWER AT 85.01/BBL
The crude complex was lower on Tuesday, albeit within tight ranges, as a slightly firmer Dollar weighed in light energy-specific news-flow. As such, WTI and Brent trundled lower through the European session to hit troughs of USD 80.83/bbl and 85.10/bbl, respectively, but as US players entered for the day energy rallied off lows to hit peaks off 81.90/bbl and 86.23/bbl, before residing back towards the bottom end of ranges at settlement. As mentioned, news-flow was thin although Russia’s oil loadings from Western ports in July is set to decline 23% M/M as refinery runs are expected to rise, according to Reuters sources, and as such Russia will cut oil exports via western ports to 1.5mln BPD, down almost 500k BPD from June, as processing at its refineries is set to rise after maintenance. Elsewhere, Exxon (XOM) plans new Guyana oil project to boost output into 2030s; also for Exxon, it said French Gravenchon refinery still blocked by strike and if they continue, they may have to suspend production. On the geopolitical footing, there were no meaningful developments, although do note overnight reports of a US drone being shot down in the Black Sea were denied by US defence officials. Ahead, traders await the weekly private inventory data after-hours, ahead of EIA’s on Wednesday. Current expectations are (bbls): Crude -2.9mln, Distillate -0.3mln, Gasoline -1mln. Oil report courtesy of newsquark.
CRUDE down: $80.79 80.85 (81.76 – 80.62) LOWS
BOND YIELDS:
US 1-MO 5.324 +0.01
US 6-MO 5.348 +0.052
US 1-YR 5.113 +0.005
US 5-YR 4.276 +0.005
US 10-YR 4.248 UNCH
US 30-YR 4.377 -0.001
2YR/10YR -0.50
CRYPTO
– Bitcoin was bid aggressively despite some German govt moving bitcoin headlines. BTC bounced off $59k (close-ish to its 200DMA) back up to pre-Mt.Gox headline levels
CRYPTO: BTC/ETH UP: 61940 +4.5%, 3416 +3.9%
KEEP DOING WHATS WORKING
STOP WHAT ISNT.
Best of luck out there. Let the market come to you
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