RBA holds and USA Non-Farm Payrolls shows some weakness in US economy. Stocks pumped and dumped with the Greenback just simply dumped.
“What we learn from history is that people do not learn from history” W.E.Buffett.
After a week off attending a trade expo, I note it has been a week of risk off.
Massive week of news coming up, so volatility will be extreme.
Chinese whispers flush Aussie dollar shorts out, whilst US stocks stonk on up along with rate rise expectations – go figure.
With most of Europe and the US closed for holiday today, the market will rip higher thanks to the US debt ceiling being lifted as Biden and McCarthy come to an arrangement.
With all this in play, it is a difficult balance for investors. The idea of stocks rising for sustained period seems unlikely
Last week saw US inflation come off a tad but still a long way to go. The US Fed heads (Governor Bowman) are still talking of higher rates. There is also the issue of banking crisis still lingering, in fact getting worse. And the big one this week, the US debt ceiling.
Chicken or egg – for The Fed to fold, the market will have to crash but the market won’t crash because everyone knows The Fed will fold and juice stocks back to un-reality
All eyes will be on the Fed at the FOMC. Odds are high for a 0.25% move again which is in stark contrast to the RBA who will not raise rates. Making the interest rate differential between the two economies at 1.65%.